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Mathematics

Upcoming Colloquium & Seminars

COVID-19疫情规模与潜伏期的统计分析

Speaker:         Prof, Tao HU (胡涛), School of Mathematics Sciences, Capital Normal University

Time&Venue:  9:30-10:30am July 8, 2020.  Tencent Meeting ID: 475 180 678

Abstract: 本报告将介绍COVID-19疫情规模与潜伏期的统计分析。首先介绍几种对累计COVID-19疫情预测预报中的非线性增长曲线,说明了Richards 增长曲线在这次COVID-19 疫情预测预报中合理性和可行性。在此基础上,建立了累计COVID-19疫情预测预报中的非线性回归点模型,并给出了参数估计方法。其次我们使用根据中国省级疾病控制中心等机构公开报道的信息整理而来的流行病学数据,在双重区间删失的数据结构下,对新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的潜伏期分布进行参数估计。本报告的方法可以充分利用新冠肺炎流行病学调查的数据结构,可为疫情防控政策制定提供可靠的依据。

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